The nation has 218 “$1 million cities,” but if current appreciation rates hold through 2020, two Eastern Massachusetts communities will join them, according to an analysis Zillow released Monday.
Needham and Edgartown would join Nantucket, Chilmark, Weston, Aquinnah, Wellesley, Dover, Newton, Vineyard Haven, Belmont, Brookline, Lexington, Winchester, and Lincoln. Zillow defines “$1 million cities” as those with a typical home value of at least $1 million.
It’s no surprise that the largest US metros had more communities on the list: San Francisco, New York, and Los Angeles dominate, with more than half of all $1 million cities, while San Jose has 10 and Boston tied with 10 and Miami has seven. While the San Jose metro area had 10 communities on the list, the city itself fell off the count, along with San Quentin and Lexington Hills, Calif., and Laie, Hawaii. It’s the first time since 2016 that any cities fell off the list.
Assuming current rates of decline hold, Zillow predicts five more cities will lose their $1 million status this year, reflecting a slower market in 2019.
“Odd though it may seem, it’s the cities at the top that are ‘struggling’ the most during this return to normalcy in the market,” said Skylar Olsen, Zillow’s director of economic research. “More than just slower growth, home values good and truly fell in many of these hubs of luxury, a sign that the excessive home value appreciation of the past several years drove prices too high — even beyond the reach of those who could afford almost anything almost anywhere else.”
Here are the typical home values of the Eastern Massachusetts communities that made the list:
1. Nantucket ($1,631,930)
2. Chilmark ($1,509,461)
3. Weston ($1,477,975)
4. Aquinnah ($1,452,097)
5. Wellesley ($1,358,549)
6. Dover ($1,162,389)
7. Newton ($1,142,415)
8. Vineyard Haven ($1,053,574)
9. Belmont ($1,048,263)
10. Brookline ($1,047,651)
11. Lexington ($1,044,739)
12. Winchester ($1,043,455)
13. Lincoln ($1,038,035)
The PropertyShark blog reported Monday that Massachusetts has 40 of the 50 most expensive ZIP codes in New England, with Boston’s 02199, around the Prudential Center, leading the pack. Middlesex County had the most on the list, 21, followed by Norfolk with nine (tied with Connecticut’s Fairfield County) and Suffolk County with eight. Get the full list.