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Report: Boston’s share of moving buyers will be among the lowest in US

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IRVINE, Calif. — Chicago, Washington, D.C., Orlando, Tampa-St. Petersburg, and Atlanta posted the highest premover index in the second quarter of 2018 — predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter — among 36 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 500,000 single-family homes and condos, according to data released Thursday.

Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a ‘‘premover’’ indicator to total single-family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 90 days in a given market.

Among a broader set of 131 metro areas with at least 100,000 single-family homes and condos, those posting the highest premover index in the second quarter were Wilmington, N.C. (206); Colorado Springs (178); and Manchester-Nashua (172); followed by Chicago (168); and Washington, D.C. (166).

‘‘A higher premover index bodes well for local real estate agents, home improvement stores, moving companies, and others that benefit from the halo effect of a home sale,’’ said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM. ‘‘Meanwhile markets with a low premover index likely have a scarcity of inventory available to buy or relatively weak demand from prospective buyers — or some combination of both — which is not optimal for businesses that rely on the home sale halo effect.’’

Among the 36 metros with at least 500,000 single-family homes and condos, those with the lowest premover index were Cleveland (38), Boston, and San Francisco (49).

Among the broader set of 131 metro areas with at least 100,000 single-family homes and condos, those with the lowest premover index were Providence, (31), Albany (35), San Jose (37), and Buffalo (38).

States with the highest premover index in the second quarter of 2018 — predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the third quarter — were North Dakota (275), Illinois (193), Nevada (164), Virginia (163), and Colorado (147).

Historical premover data going back to the first quarter of 2014 show that 59 percent of homes with a premover flag sell within 30 days of the estimated loan settlement date, and 76 percent go within 90 days. The loan application data used for the premover index also includes the intended purpose of the potential purchase: primary residence, secondary (vacation) home, or investment property.

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